The start of February is just a few days away and I'm sure you know what special weather day takes place on the 2nd. "It's Ground Hog Day". That yearly event when a little critter peeks out of his burrow to either see his shadow or not.

Believe what you want but I don't see any science in forecasting beyond seven to ten days. Once you get that far out it's basically a lot of guess work and luck. Thanks to improved computer forecast modeling the long range outlooks are getting better. These forecast models allow us to see trends and help us make a stab at predicting longer range weather events.

In case you're wondering, I see no major warm up through the first two weeks of February. The weather pattern continues to look active, so there will be systems moving through our area every 2 to 3 days. Some of these will bring a wintry precipitation threat while others will be just rain.

By the way if I were betting on the ground hog, I would say he sees his shadow this weekend and we are headed for six more weeks of Winter weather.

Shane Butler

Chief Groundhog
(Chief Meteorologist)