8:30am Wednesday, April 29, 2009

We look at the pattern for the next two weeks and see one clear message: 

Winter is over. 

This of course, comes as no surprise, given that May begins in just 2 days. The weather pattern over the next 14 days suggests temperatures will be near or above normal, with practically no chance of an unusual cold snap to stifle the growing season. 

With little exception, the jet stream flow will be coming from the west or southwest for the next two weeks, keeping any unusual chill locked up into Canada, the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England.

The average date of the last killing frost in Lynchburg and Roanoke is in middle April, but that date is pushed back until the first week in May in the New River Valley and Virginia’s Western Highlands. However, it looks very likely that all of the state has cleared that hurdle, and it will be well into autumn before temperatures are below freezing again.

Normal highs for the next two weeks are in the lower to middle 70s, while normal lows are in the upper 40s. So of the next 14 days, we would expect 10 or 11 of them to have highs of 70 or above.

While this pattern does not favor large, soaking rains, it does give several chances for small rains (1-2 hours at a time), so even though the state is moderately dry, no drought is expected to develop.

Here’s a general idea of how the next two weeks are expected to play out…

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. High 72.

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with spotty light rain and drizzle. Low 49.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and much cooler with a passing shower or two. High 65.

Friday: A mix of clouds and sunshine with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. High 79.

Saturday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine with an afternoon shower or heavier thunderstorm likely. High 77.

Sunday and Monday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 75.

Wednesday (5/5-5/6). Dry. Highs in the 70s Monday and Tuesday, 80s Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday (5/7-5/8): Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to near 80.

Saturday and Sunday (5/9-5/10): Dry. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Monday and Tuesday (5/11-5/12): Sun and clouds with isolated afternoon showers. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.