WSET.com - ABC13A Course In The Tropics by Sean Sublette

While I am fortunate enough to be in South Florida for the first few days of summer, I am getting some work done. Today I am at a short course on tropical meteorology. The course is sponsored by the American Meteorological Society and, believe it or not, Energizer batteries (who knew?).

The speakers have been really good. Barry Choy, the Chief of Flight Operations Division at NOAA, walked us through what it was like to fly through a hurricane. His division includes the famous Hurricane Hunters, whose job it is to fly through these massive tropical cyclones to gather data and help operational meteorologists make better forecasts. He took video of their flight through Hurricane Katrina when the storm was still an offshore Category 5, and there was a beautiful shot of the stadium effect from the eye.

We also got a tremendous briefing on all of the numerical simulations, sometimes referred to as guidance or models, used to help forecast tropical cyclones. These models all have their strengths and limitations. It serves as a strong reminder to use caution if you pull up a page on the internet that displays all of the model tracks of a particular storm.

We also looked at how far hurricane forecasting has come in the last 10 years. A 72-hour position forecast is as good as a 48-hour position forecast from 10 years ago. Likewise, a 48-hour position forecast is as good as a 24-hour forecast from 10 years ago.

One thing that still needs work is forecasting the changes in intensity of tropical cyclones. While it is well-understood that warmer water, a moist middle atmosphere, and low vertical wind shear all contribute to a strengthening tropical system, the rate of intensification is often very difficult to ascertain. One of the final slides in the intensity forecast talk summed it up well:

Substantial improvements in intensity forecasting are still many years away. Big improvements need to be made in observing the inner core of a tropical cyclone, we must have better ways to assimilate data into our numerical models, and we have to have better resolution in our models. All this assumes that we develop a better understanding of the physical processes that are going on in the center of the cyclone.

A large field experiment on tropical cyclones is planned for later this year, and there is great optimism that the experiment will further our understanding of these storms.

On Saturday, we will tour the National Hurricane Center, and it should be a great trip.