WSET.com - ABC132010 Hurricane Update by Matt Ferguson

Since the current hurricane season started, things have been pretty close to normal. So far we've had Hurricane Alex, which became a category 2 hurricane (96 to 110mph) hitting Mexico and two tropical storms, Bonnie and Colin. Bonnie hit southern Florida and Colin avoided the US by staying well out at sea.

We are now at a time when climatologically things really begin to heat up. As discussed in an earlier blog this season looks very active. This year the Atlantic water temperatures are warmer than normal, which promotes hurricane development. Also La Nina has developed. (La Nina - is cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that impact global weather patterns.) This causes upper level winds across the Atlantic will be weaker. Therefore, any storms that begin to build up will not be broken apart. Also in the past La Nina hurricane seasons tend to be most active during the months of September and October.

Here is the latest forecast from the NOAA:

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season, June 1 to November 30 (including Alex, Bonnie and Colin)

14 to 20 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher) - Average 11

8 to 12 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher) - Average 6

4 to 6 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph) - Average 2

We see the forecast is an above normal amount of storms. So where are the storms that form heading? Something that plays a large role in hurricane movement is the upper level wind pattern. A hurricane is much like a beach ball that is thrown into the middle of a swimming pool. The wind blowing across the water will eventually drive the ball into one edge of the pool. This is similar to how we forecast tropical cyclone movement. Right now the current upper level wind pattern is beginning to set up in a way that could drive storms into the southeastern US (from North Carolina to Florida). Long range computer models are showing upper level ridging over New England and Eastern Canada by later this month. Any storms that move into the southwestern Atlantic (around the Bahamas) could be driven by a high pressure system to the north, right into the Southeast coastline. Check out the graphic below.

This is something we'll be monitoring very closely during the next several months. You can track the storms along with us by visiting our ABC 13 Tropical Satellite weather website page.