WSET.com - ABC13Tropics Heating Up by Lyndsay Tapases

As of 11AM this (Wednesday) morning, Hurricane Earl is still a category 3 storm with max winds at 125mph, heading WNW at 17mph. Residents along the East Coast, from the Carolinas to New England, are taking precautions in advance. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Bogue Inlet North Carolina Northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for Norfolk and Virginia Beach, as well as much of the Delmarva Peninsula.

The official forecast track still takes the center of Earl to the east of any land, but it is important to note that just a small westward deviation of the official track could bring the center of circulation over the coast. While it is still too early to provide exact wind and surge details, areas under the watches and warnings should be aware of the likeliness of damage due to storm surge and hurricane-force winds. So far, there have been mandatory evacuations of visitors to the islands of Ocracoke and Hatteras in North Carolina, causing thousands to have to end their vacations early.

Hurricane Earl is just the first in a recent train of tropical systems. However, Tropical Storm Fiona is not expected to gain Hurricane status, and will likely remain well out in the open waters of the Atlantic. Tropical Depression #9 will have to be watched closely in the next couple of days, and a fourth tropical wave off the coast of Africa may become yet another system.

Here again is NOAA's outlook for the 2010 season, with AVERAGE values in parenthesis:

-14-20 Named Storms (11.3)

-8-12 Hurricanes (6.2)

-4-6 Major Hurricanes (2.3)

So far, we have had:

-6 Named Storms

-3 Hurricanes (Alex, Danielle, Earl)

-2 Major Hurricanes (Danielle, Earl)

On average (taking data accumulated from 1966-2009), the Atlantic sees 3 hurricanes by September 9th of the season, and only 1 major hurricane by September 4th. So this season has been average (if not slightly above) up until this point, but the statistical peak of the season is not until September 10th. Therefore, we can expect the tropics to remain hot over the next 2 weeks.

As for now, we will be keeping a close eye on the path of Earl over the next 24+ hours. Even if the storm's center does not make landfall, the radius of damaging winds and storm surge that will impact land must still be taken seriously, as well as high surf and rip currents in the storm's wake.